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West Indian Ocean variability and East African fish catch
M Jury1, T McClanahan, J Maina
1University of Zululand, South Africa. mark.jury@upr.edu
Marine Environmental Research
|May 18, 2010
Summary
Marine climate variability influences East African fish catches, with lower sea surface temperatures and humidity correlating with higher catches. Coastal dynamics, not just ocean-wide patterns, significantly impact fisheries productivity.
Area of Science:
- Marine Biology
- Climate Science
- Fisheries Science
Background:
- Marine climate variability significantly impacts fisheries productivity.
- East African fish catch statistics from Tanzania and Kenya show quasi-decadal cycles.
- Understanding these cycles is crucial for sustainable fisheries management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe marine climate variability off East Africa.
- To correlate this variability with fish catch statistics.
- To analyze the influence of both large-scale ocean patterns and coastal dynamics on fisheries.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of fish catch data from Tanzania and Kenya (1964-2007).
- Correlation of catch data with sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric humidity.
- Investigation of oceanographic features like Rossby waves and currents.
- Review of 200 years of climate data and climate model simulations.
Main Results:
- Fish catch increases when tropical West Indian Ocean SST and humidity are below normal.
- High catch years correlate with drier weather and a saltier surface layer.
- Northward currents and shelf-edge upwelling enhance East African shelf productivity.
- Coastal dynamics play a more significant role than large-scale West Indian Ocean patterns.
Conclusions:
- Marine climate variability, particularly coastal dynamics, is a key driver of East African fish catch fluctuations.
- Projected climate change indicates rising SST and strengthening SW monsoon winds by 2100.
- Further research into the interplay of climate and fisheries is essential for adaptation strategies.
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