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Updated: May 5, 2026

Evolution of Staircase Structures in Diffusive Convection
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Robust warming of the global upper ocean.

John M Lyman1, Simon A Good, Viktor V Gouretski

  • 1Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA. john.lyman@noaa.gov

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Summary

Ocean warming is significant, but uncertainties in measurements, especially from expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, impact estimates. Despite this, a clear warming trend persists in ocean heat content.

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Area of Science:

  • Oceanography
  • Climate Science
  • Earth System Science

Background:

  • A substantial multi-decadal ocean warming signal has been observed, primarily in the upper ocean, attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
  • The upper ocean absorbs the majority of Earth's excess energy, but uncertainties in ocean warming data hinder climate assessments.
  • Discrepancies exist among different estimates of upper-ocean heat content anomalies (OHCA) and thermosteric sea-level rise.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate sources of uncertainty contributing to variations in OHCA curves between 1993 and 2008.
  • To focus on the impact of expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data bias corrections on OHCA estimates.
  • To provide a more robust assessment of ocean warming trends despite data uncertainties.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of various sources of uncertainty in upper-ocean heat content data from 1993-2008.
  • Detailed examination of bias correction methods for expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, a key historical data source.
  • Creation of a composite OHCA curve using multiple XBT bias correction approaches.

Main Results:

  • Uncertainty stemming from the choice of XBT bias correction method is the dominant factor causing variability among OHCA curves.
  • Despite uncertainties, a statistically significant linear warming trend of 0.64 W m⁻² (90% CI: 0.53–0.75 W m⁻²) was found for 1993-2008.
  • Interannual variability patterns differ significantly depending on the methodology used for OHCA estimation.

Conclusions:

  • The choice of XBT bias correction significantly influences estimates of ocean heat content anomalies.
  • A robust, statistically significant ocean warming trend is confirmed for the 1993-2008 period, underscoring the reality of ocean heat uptake.
  • Further research into data assimilation and bias correction is crucial for refining climate model assessments and sea-level budgets.