Prediction of caries increment in Scottish adolescents

Salivary, clinical, and microbiological factors were compared with subsequent 2-yr caries increment in a group of 372 Scottish adolescents. The caries increment was significantly correlated with previous caries experience, salivary buffering capacity and counts of lactobacilli, mutans streptococci and candida. Veillonella levels and salivary flow rate were not correlated with caries increment. Significant improvements in the predictions were obtained when the results of more than one test were included using stepwise regression analysis. On an individual basis, using stepwise discriminant analysis, the caries increment group (low, medium, or high) was identified correctly in 49% of all subjects, but this was reduced to 45% if previous caries experience was excluded from the analysis.