[Shift-share analysis on regional industrial pollution growth]

Based on the statistical calculation of industrial pollution charge, an extended shift share analysis method was employed to study the regional industrial pollution growth in Jilin Province, and the preferred action for regional industrial ecological transition was discussed from a view point of pollution treatment. The results could be summarized as follows: 1) Proportional shift could suggest some ways to promote industrial ecological transition from the aspect of industrial organization, while differential shift can provide some enlightenment for pollution treatment in terms of technology. The variation coefficients of proportional shift and differential shift at regional scale are 15.78 and 34.05 respectively, and the difference between them implies that production technology plays a much more important role than that of industrial organization in the course of regional industrial ecological transition. 2) Comparing the corresponding components at regional scale and neighborhood scale is meaningful to discover the area which has a dominant effect on regional pollution. As to Jilin Province, it should pay more attention on the pollution reducing in Changchun City and Jilin City. 3) By means of identifying sectoral linkage influence and non-linkage influence on pollutants output, regional pollution types can be grouped into compound category and monomial category, and relevant countermeasures could be adopted to control industrial pollution through industrial organization. 4) The spatial structure of industrial ecological transition in Jilin Province can be divided into four regions which are central area, southeast area, western area and eastern area.