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Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming
Frank A La Sorte1, Walter Jetz
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8106, USA. frank.lasorte@yale.edu
Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|June 11, 2010
Summary
Montane biodiversity faces severe threats from climate change. At least one-third of montane bird diversity is at high risk, especially with limited vertical dispersal capabilities.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Biodiversity Conservation
- Climate Change Biology
Background:
- Tropical mountains are biodiversity hotspots.
- Montane species are vulnerable to climate change due to isolation and adaptation.
- Climate change poses significant extinction risks to high-elevation specialists.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess global range contractions and extinction risks for montane birds under climate change.
- To evaluate the impact of different dispersal scenarios on montane species vulnerability.
- To identify key geographical factors influencing extinction risk in montane ecosystems.
Main Methods:
- Global assessment of 1009 montane bird species.
- Modeling under three dispersal scenarios: constrained vertical dispersal (VD), unconstrained VD, and unconstrained lateral movement.
- Analysis of species' vertical distributions, range extents, and mountain system geography.
Main Results:
- Constrained vertical dispersal severely impacts species with narrow vertical distributions, threatening at least a third of montane bird diversity.
- Mountain system geography and structure are critical drivers of extinction risk, even with unconstrained dispersal.
- Limited improvement in species' fate is observed even with unconstrained lateral movements in certain regions (Afrotropics, Australasia, Nearctic).
Conclusions:
- Montane biodiversity is exceptionally vulnerable to global warming, facing significant biotic perturbation and extinction.
- Geographical factors, including species richness patterns and mountain system structure, critically determine vulnerability.
- Further research on vertical distributions, dispersal, and adaptive capacities is crucial for effective conservation strategies.
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