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Frequency of treatment-effect modification affecting indirect comparisons: a systematic review
1Cancer Epidemiology Centre, Cancer Council, Carlton, Victoria, Australia. Michael.Coory@cancervic.org.au
Treatment-effect modification occurs in 10-46% of meta-analyses, challenging the similarity assumption in indirect comparisons. Always compare patient and study differences to assess this risk.
Area of Science:
- Medical Statistics
- Evidence Synthesis
- Pharmacoeconomics
Background:
- Indirect comparisons are crucial for treatment evaluation when direct head-to-head trials are absent.
- A core assumption is 'similarity,' meaning no treatment-effect modification across studies.
- Lack of direct evidence on the frequency of treatment-effect modification hinders assumption validation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and summarize the frequency of treatment-effect modification in trials.
- To assess the impact of patient characteristics and study methods on treatment effect heterogeneity.
- To inform the critical assumption of similarity in indirect treatment comparisons.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (inception to November 2009).
- Identified six analyses assessing treatment-effect modification in direct head-to-head meta-analyses.
- Analyzed frequency of modification for ratio measures (odds ratio, relative risk) and risk difference.
Main Results:
- Treatment-effect modification occurred in 10-33% of meta-analyses for ratio measures.
- For risk difference, treatment-effect modification ranged from 15-46%.
- No direct statistical assessment for treatment-effect modification in indirect comparisons, unlike head-to-head meta-analyses.
Conclusions:
- The assumption of similarity in indirect comparisons is not always prudent.
- Ratio measures are not sufficiently robust to justify assuming similarity without further investigation.
- Thorough narrative comparison of patient and study differences is essential for assessing similarity plausibility.
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