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Is undergraduate performance predictive of postgraduate performance?
Wayne Woloschuk1, Kevin McLaughlin, Bruce Wright
1University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. woloschu@ucalgary.ca
Teaching and Learning in Medicine
|June 22, 2010
Summary
Undergraduate medical school performance, including GPA and exam scores, poorly predicts future success in residency training. Key residency performance dimensions like clinical acumen and human sensitivity showed minimal correlation with earlier academic metrics.
Area of Science:
- Medical Education Research
- Residency Training Assessment
- Performance Prediction Models
Background:
- Medical training involves a continuum from undergraduate to postgraduate levels.
- Performance in medical school is hypothesized to predict later residency performance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive validity of undergraduate performance metrics on postgraduate residency performance.
- To determine if medical school metrics can forecast success in residency.
Main Methods:
- Residency program directors evaluated 242 medical school graduates (Classes 2004-2006) after their first postgraduate year.
- Undergraduate performance data included GPA, clerkship evaluations, and Medical Council of Canada Part 1 exam scores.
Main Results:
- Postgraduate performance was characterized by clinical acumen and human sensitivity, explaining 78% of the variance.
- Correlations between undergraduate metrics and postgraduate performance dimensions were low, ranging from .03 to .31.
Conclusions:
- Undergraduate performance measures demonstrate limited predictive power for residency performance.
- Clinical acumen and human sensitivity in residency are not well-predicted by undergraduate academic achievements.
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