Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Change Biology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Projected 2050 conditions: 9.1 billion population, 550 ppm CO2, 60 ppb ozone, 2°C warmer climate.
• Need to assess crop yield contributions to global food security under these future scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the potential impact of environmental changes on crop yields.
• To determine the role of increased crop production in feeding the future global population.
• To identify strategies for maximizing crop yields in changing environmental conditions.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of projected environmental changes (CO2, temperature, ozone).
• Modeling of crop yield responses to these changes.
• Assessment of factors influencing yield gaps and potential improvements.

Main Results:

• CO2 enrichment may increase yields by ~13%, but C4 crops may see no change.
• Increased temperatures could offer agronomic opportunities, but also increase evaporation.
• Ozone increases may decrease yields by 5% or more; soil-borne pathogens may increase.
• Closing the yield gap and improving potential yields could increase production by ~50% without extra land.

Conclusions:

• Future crop production is sensitive to CO2, temperature, and ozone levels.
• Agronomic and breeding strategies are crucial for adapting to climate change.
• Reducing the gap between achievable and actual farm yields is vital for food security.
• Bio-energy land demands are not factored into these yield increase projections.