Secular changes in cognitive predictors of dementia and mortality in 70-year-olds

Successive elderly birth cohorts improved in cognitive performance during the 20th century. It is not clear whether this influences cognitive predictors of dementia and mortality.

In 2 longitudinal population studies, representing 2 cohorts of 70-year-olds examined 30 years apart, we investigated the relation between baseline cognitive function and 5-year occurrence of dementia and mortality.

Two representative cohorts of 70-year-olds initially free from dementia born in 1901-1902 (cohort 1901-1902: n = 381) and 1930 (cohort 1930: n = 551) from Gothenburg, Sweden, were examined in 1971-1972 and 2000-2001 and after 5 years for the outcome of dementia and death. Recent memory was evaluated during psychiatric examinations, and nonmemory domains using psychometric tests.

At age 70, cohort 1930 performed better on psychometric tests, and had fewer recent memory problems compared to cohort 1901-1902. During 5-year follow-up, 5.0% in cohort 1901-1902 and 4.4% in cohort 1930 (p = 0.742) developed dementia, and 15.7% in cohort 1901-1902 and 4.4% in cohort 1930 died (p < 0.001). Recent memory was associated with incident dementia in both cohorts. Low scores in nonmemory tests were associated with incident dementia in cohort 1901-1902, but not in cohort 1930. Recent memory problems and lower scores in nonmemory tests were associated with 5-year mortality in cohort 1901-1902, but not in cohort 1930.

Secular changes in cognitive performance may influence cognitive predictors of dementia and mortality, despite similar incidence of dementia. The findings should be taken cautiously due to differences between cohorts in refusal rates, quality of education, and dementia recognition in medical records.