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Related Concept Videos

The Availability Heuristic01:08

The Availability Heuristic

A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
Probability in Statistics01:14

Probability in Statistics

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Barnes Maze Testing Strategies with Small and Large Rodent Models
12:59

Barnes Maze Testing Strategies with Small and Large Rodent Models

Published on: February 26, 2014

Probability matching and strategy availability.

Derek J Koehler1, Greta James

  • 1University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. dkoehler@uwaterloo.ca

Memory & Cognition
|September 21, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Probability matching in sequential choice occurs because the easier matching strategy is readily available, while the superior maximizing strategy is not. Participants underthink, failing to consider better options when they don't immediately come to mind.

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Barnes Maze Testing Strategies with Small and Large Rodent Models
12:59

Barnes Maze Testing Strategies with Small and Large Rodent Models

Published on: February 26, 2014

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Probability matching is a common heuristic in sequential choice tasks.
  • The underlying cognitive mechanisms driving this behavior are not fully understood.
  • Previous research often attributed probability matching to overthinking or cognitive biases.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the role of strategy availability in probability matching.
  • To differentiate between underthinking and overthinking as explanations for probability matching.
  • To identify factors influencing the adoption of maximizing strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Two experiments were conducted involving sequential choice tasks.
  • Participants' strategy preferences were assessed through direct comparison and intervention.
  • Decision-making tendencies in other tasks were analyzed to infer reliance on intuition.

Main Results:

  • The majority of participants recognized maximizing as superior to matching when both were described.
  • Prompting participants to consider the maximizing strategy increased its subsequent use.
  • Probability matchers were more likely to rely on initial intuitions compared to maximizers.

Conclusions:

  • Probability matching primarily results from the easy availability of the matching strategy, not overthinking.
  • A significant portion of probability matchers engage in 'underthinking' by not deliberating enough to find superior strategies.
  • Cognitive accessibility significantly influences strategy selection in sequential choice.