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Developing a Virtual Reality Video Game to Simulate Rip Currents
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Why near-miss events can decrease an individual's protective response to hurricanes.

Robin L Dillon1, Catherine H Tinsley, Matthew Cronin

  • 1The McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. rld9@georgetown.edu

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|October 1, 2010
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Near-miss events, where disaster is narrowly avoided, reduce people's perception of risk. This leads to less engagement in crucial mitigation activities like purchasing flood insurance or evacuating for hurricanes.

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Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat
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Area of Science:

  • Risk perception and decision-making
  • Hazard mitigation behavior

Background:

  • Low perceived risk of hazardous events deters mitigation activities.
  • Near-miss events, where disaster is averted by chance, can falsely lower risk perception.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how information about near-miss events influences risk perception and mitigation decisions.
  • To examine the impact of near-miss information on flood insurance purchase and hurricane evacuation decisions.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted involving participants from the general population and those with risk-related interests.
  • Study 1 examined flood insurance purchasing behavior with near-miss information.
  • Study 2 analyzed hurricane evacuation decisions, varying hurricane damage probability and including near-miss information.

Main Results:

  • Participants receiving near-miss information were less likely to purchase flood insurance.
  • Near-miss information significantly impacted decisions regarding hurricane evacuation, regardless of statistical risk levels.
  • Individuals with near-miss experience perceived hazardous situations as less risky.

Conclusions:

  • Experiencing or learning about near-miss events can lead to underestimation of future risks.
  • This underestimation can result in inadequate preparation and mitigation for potential hazards.
  • Findings have significant implications for improving risk communication strategies to ensure appropriate public preparedness.