[Demographic change and cancer]
Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
Ron Pritzkuleit1, Fritz Beske, Alexander Katalinic
1Institut für Krebsepidemiologie an der Universität zu Lübeck, Ratzeburger Allee 160, Lübeck, Germany.
Background:
The demographic changes in Germany lead to a modified age structure of the population towards a growing proportion of elderly people. As many diseases like cancer usually appear in higher age groups, increasing numbers of cases are expected. The quantification of this development is an important indicator of the future burden of the health system.
Material And Methods:
Currently available age- and sex-specific incidence rates of the most frequent cancer sites, based on population-based cancer registries, were assigned 'ceteris paribus' to the expected populations of the years 2030, 2050 and 2060 (12th coordinated population prediction, predicted by the Federal Statistical Office).
Results:
The number of incident cancer cases will increase from 494,000 in 2010 to 642,000 in 2050 (+26%). There are considerable differences among the different cancer sites (–29% to +47%).
Conclusions:
Caused by demographic changes, sizably higher numbers of incident cancer cases have to be expected in the future in Germany. The declining population will cause an even more strongly increasing cancer burden in the population.
Related Concept Videos
Cancer Prevention
Some...
Cancer Prevention
Some...
Adaptive Mechanisms in Cancer Cells
Some of the advantages that cancer cells have on normal cells include - enhanced ability to divide without terminally differentiating, induce new blood vessel formation,...
Adaptive Mechanisms in Cancer Cells
Some of the advantages that cancer cells have on normal cells include - enhanced ability to divide without terminally differentiating, induce new blood vessel formation,...
Cancer
Cancer Survival Analysis
