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Updated: Jun 8, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Devils lake emergency outlet diversion conflict.

Jing Ma¹, Keith W Hipel, Mitali De

¹Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. umma43@cc.umanitoba.ca

Journal of Environmental Management

|October 16, 2010

Summary

The Devils Lake Emergency Outlet Diversion conflict was analyzed using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Strategic analysis accurately predicted the negotiated settlement between Canada and North Dakota.

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Area of Science:

Environmental conflict resolution
International water resource management
Game theory applications

Background:

The Devils Lake Emergency Outlet Diversion involved a long-standing dispute between Canada and the United States.
The conflict stemmed from transboundary water management issues and potential environmental impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

To systematically analyze the Devils Lake Emergency Outlet Diversion conflict using a strategic viewpoint.
To gain insights into potential resolutions of this international dispute.
To evaluate the effectiveness of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in predicting outcomes.

Main Methods:

Application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR).
Modeling the conflict situation as of July 2005, prior to the project's operation.
Conducting a stability analysis to identify potential resolutions (equilibria).
Performing a sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the model's predictions.

Main Results:

The stability analysis identified potential resolutions for the conflict.
Sensitivity analysis accurately predicted the negotiated settlement reached between Canada and North Dakota.
The model provided insights into the strategic dynamics of the dispute.

Conclusions:

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is effective in analyzing and predicting outcomes in international water disputes.
The study offers valuable insights for resolving transboundary water conflicts.
Recommendations are proposed for enhancing the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty.