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Future sustainability forecasting by exchange markets: basic theory and an application.

Nataliya Malyshkina¹, Deb Niemeier

¹University of California, Davis, The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California 95616, United States. nmalyshk@gmail.com

Environmental Science & Technology

|November 10, 2010

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a market-based approach to predict when new technologies will replace nonrenewable resources like oil. Using stock market data, it estimates this transition for gasoline and diesel could occur in approximately 131 years.

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Area of Science:

Economics
Environmental Science
Technology Forecasting

Background:

Unsustainable human activities pose significant threats to society, economic development, and ecosystems.
Setting sustainability targets and evaluating progress are crucial for addressing these threats.
Predicting the emergence of replacement technologies for nonrenewable resources is vital for long-term planning.

Purpose of the Study:

To establish a probabilistic theoretical approach for estimating the time horizon of technological innovations.
To forecast the appearance of new technologies that can replace nonrenewable resources, using market expectations.
To provide a framework for policymakers to develop effective long-term strategies.

Main Methods:

Utilizing market expectations reflected in publicly traded securities prices.
Applying advanced pricing equations with a stochastic discount factor.
Analyzing securities whose future cash flows are dependent on the appearance of innovative technologies.

Main Results:

A formula was derived to estimate the time horizon (T) for technological innovation.
The approach was applied to the replacement of crude oil and oil products.
An estimated time horizon of approximately 131 years was obtained for the replacement of gasoline and diesel.

Conclusions:

The market-expectations approach offers a novel method for forecasting technological transitions.
This approach can aid policymakers in developing effective strategies for long-term sustainability.
The findings provide valuable insights into the timing of renewable energy transitions.