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Using mortality data for early detection of Classical Swine Fever in The Netherlands
J A Backer1, H Brouwer, G van Schaik
1Department of Epidemiology, Crisis & Diagnostics, Central Veterinary Institute of Wageningen UR, Lelystad, The Netherlands. jantien.backer@wur.nl
Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|November 18, 2010
Summary
Early detection of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) using mortality data shows limited effectiveness in piglet and sow herds. While it may slightly improve detection in finishing herds, the gain is marginal for widespread impact.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Disease Control
- Animal Health Management
Background:
- Early detection of infectious livestock diseases like Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is crucial for outbreak containment.
- Current CSF detection relies on clinical signs, which can lead to delayed diagnosis.
- Non-specific clinical signs and other causes of mortality can complicate early disease identification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effectiveness of a novel early detection program for CSF based on mortality data.
- To evaluate the system's performance across different pig categories (piglets, sows, finishing pigs).
- To model virus transmission, disease progression, and detection program impacts.
Main Methods:
- Development of a stochastic model simulating CSF transmission and disease within pig herds.
- Distinction between pig categories due to varying mortality and transmission dynamics.
- Application of the model to a comprehensive database of Dutch pig herds (2001-2005) including mortality reports.
Main Results:
- The mortality-based detection system showed ineffectiveness in piglet and sow herds due to high non-CSF mortality and low CSF-mortality, respectively.
- In finishing herds, a potential two-day improvement in detection time was predicted under specific conditions (moderately virulent strain, 50% CSF mortality).
- This two-day gain, requiring significant testing, was deemed too small to demonstrate substantial overall effectiveness, though potentially valuable during periods of reduced vigilance.
Conclusions:
- The proposed mortality-data-based CSF early detection system demonstrates limited effectiveness across most pig production categories.
- While a marginal improvement in detection time is possible in finishing herds, it may not be sufficient for significant outbreak reduction.
- The system's utility might increase during prolonged disease-free periods when herd-level awareness potentially decreases.
