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Updated: Jun 6, 2026

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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Course of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis before, during and after natalizumab
Michael D Kaufman1, R Lee, H J Norton
1Carolinas Medical Center, Charlotte, NC 28207, USA. Michael.Kaufman@carolinashealthcare.org
Summary
Stopping natalizumab treatment leads to a rapid return of disease activity. Relapse rates increased significantly after treatment suspension, returning to pre-treatment levels.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Pharmacology
Background:
- Natalalizumab is an effective treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS).
- The effects of discontinuing natalizumab therapy are not fully understood.
- Understanding relapse rates after natalizumab cessation is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate confirmed annualized relapse rates in patients before, during, and after natalizumab therapy suspension.
- To quantify the impact of natalizumab interruption on disease activity.
Main Methods:
- A retrospective chart review was performed.
- Data on relapse rates were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations.
- Confirmed and unconfirmed relapse rates were assessed.
Main Results:
- The confirmed annualized relapse rate during natalizumab therapy was 0.08.
- Relapse rates increased to 0.52 in the 12 months prior to therapy and 0.35 in the 3-24 months following cessation.
- These increases were statistically significant (p = 0.0003 and p = 0.0032, respectively).
Conclusions:
- Disease activity in multiple sclerosis patients rapidly returns to pre-natalizumab levels after treatment cessation.
- Natalalizumab discontinuation is associated with a significant increase in relapse rates.
- These findings highlight the importance of continuous natalizumab therapy for sustained disease control.
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