Empirical validation of a real options theory based method for optimizing evacuation decisions within chemical plants

This article empirically assesses and validates a methodology to make evacuation decisions in case of major fire accidents in chemical clusters. In this paper, a number of empirical results are presented, processed and discussed with respect to the implications and management of evacuation decisions in chemical companies. It has been shown in this article that in realistic industrial settings, suboptimal interventions may result in case the prospect to obtain additional information at later stages of the decision process is ignored. Empirical results also show that implications of interventions, as well as the required time and workforce to complete particular shutdown activities, may be very different from one company to another. Therefore, to be optimal from an economic viewpoint, it is essential that precautionary evacuation decisions are tailor-made per company.