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Updated: Jun 5, 2026
High-throughput Detection Method for Influenza Virus
Published on: February 4, 2012
[Estimation on the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) cases, Beijing, 2009]
Xiao-li Wang1, Peng Yang, Xiang-feng Dou
1Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, China.
Objective:
To estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection in Beijing, 2009.
Methods:
A multiplier model (Impact 2009 v 1.0 software) based on Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) based on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, novel influenza A (H1N1) positive rate among ILI cases and rate on clinical visit of ILIs in secondary and tertiary hospitals.
Results:
There were 1.80 million (90%CI: 1.46 - 2.30) estimated novel influenza A (H1N1) cases in 2009 in Beijing with the rate of infection as 11.0%. One reported case would represent 167 real infections. The highest age groups of infection were 0 - 4 years and 5 - 14 years, being 32.5% and 33.3%, respectively.
Conclusion:
Laboratory-confirmed infections with novel influenza A (H1N1) only represented a fraction of the total cases in a population, suggesting that it was imperative to estimate the real number of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection.
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