A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk
Samrat Chatterjee1, Mark D Abkowitz
1Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events,University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA. samrat.chatterjee@usc.edu
Summary
This study developed a regional terrorism risk assessment model to quantify terrorism threats. The model integrates terrorism risk into an all-hazards framework for effective resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Risk Assessment
- Homeland Security
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Terrorism risk is a significant concern for individuals and organizations.
- There is a growing need to assess terrorism risk within a broader all-hazards context, including accidents and natural disasters.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a regional terrorism risk assessment model.
- To quantify terrorism risk as a dependent variable in monetary terms.
- To contextualize terrorism risk alongside man-made and natural hazards for resource allocation.
Main Methods:
- Modeling terrorism risk as a function of population concentration and critical infrastructure.
- Incorporating elements of event-based models and risk indicators.
- Applying the model within a United States case study.
Main Results:
- The model provides a method for assessing regional terrorism risk independently.
- It allows for the comparison of terrorism risk with other hazard risks.
- Results are applicable at various jurisdictional levels.
Conclusions:
- The developed model offers a framework for understanding and managing regional terrorism risk.
- It facilitates effective mitigation resource allocation by contextualizing threats.
- The study discusses the model's validity, strengths, and limitations.
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