Predictors of 5 year survival following hip fracture

This study aims to assess the mortality associated with hip fracture at 5 years in a geriatric population, and evaluate the influence of age, cognitive state, mobility and residential status on long term survival after hip fracture.

A prospective audit was carried out of all patients with a hip fracture admitted to a university hospital over a 4 year period. Data from 2640 patients were analysed and multivariate analysis used to indicate the important variables predicting mortality. Patients fulfilling the criteria of age<80 years, Abbreviated Mental Test Score (AMT)≥7/10, independently mobile and admitted from own home were put into group A (low risk group). Patients not meeting the criteria were placed into group B (high risk group).

2640 patients fitted the inclusion criteria, 482 in group A and 2158 in group B. 850 patients (43.1%) died in their first year following hip fracture. 302 patients (63%) of group A were still alive at 5 years in comparison with only 367 (17%) of group B. Overall, 669 (25%) patients survived for 5 years. Increased survival was shown for the following variables: age<80 years RR 5.27 (p<0.01), AMT≥7/10 RR 6.03 (p<0.01), independent mobility RR 2.63 (p<0.01) and admitted from own home RR 4.52 (p<0.01).

These findings will allow for early recognition of those patients with an increased chance of long-term survival following hip fracture. Such patients may be suitable for surgical treatment, such as total hip replacement, which has a good long-term outcome.