The relationship between kidney function and long-term graft survival after kidney transplant

Whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) staging provides a useful framework for predicting outcomes after kidney transplant is unclear.

Retrospective cohort study.

We used data from the Patient Outcomes in Renal Transplantation (PORT) Study, including 13,671 transplants from 12 centers during 10 years of follow-up.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR; in milliliters per minute per 1.73 m(2)) at 12 months posttransplant.

All-cause graft failure (a composite end point consisting of return to dialysis therapy, pre-emptive retransplant, or death with function), death-censored graft failure, and death with a functioning graft.

The relationship between 12-month eGFR and subsequent graft outcomes through 10 years posttransplant was assessed using Cox proportional hazards analyses.

Stage 3 included 63% of patients and was subdivided into stages 3a (eGFR, 45-59 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 34%) and 3b (eGFR, 30-44 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 29%). Compared with stage 2 (eGFR, 60-89 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 24%), adjusted Cox proportional HRs for graft failure were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.24; P = 0.04) for stage 3a, 1.50 (95% CI, 1.35-1.66; P < 0.001) for stage 3b, 2.86 (95% CI, 2.53-3.22; P < 0.001) for stage 4 (eGFR, 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 9%), and 13.2 (95% CI, 10.7-16.4; P < 0.001) for stage 5 (eGFR <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 1%). For stage 1 (eGFR ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m(2); 3%), risk of graft failure was increased (1.41 [95% CI, 1.13-1.75]; P < 0.001), likely due to serum creatinine associations independent of kidney function. Similar associations were seen between CKD stages and mortality.

Retrospective study; lack of gold-standard measurements of true GFR; lack of measures of comorbidity, inflammation, muscle mass, proteinuria, and other noncreatinine markers of eGFR.

CKD stages validated in the general population provide a useful framework for predicting outcomes after kidney transplant.