Is human papillomavirus screening preferable to current policies in vaccinated and unvaccinated women? A...

Italy was the first European nation to offer free vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18. The vaccination is actively encouraged and is available free of charge to 11-year-old girls. The introduction of new technologies such as HPV DNA testing and HPV vaccination requires cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer strategies in Italy for both vaccinated and unvaccinated women.

A calibrated Markov model was developed to describe the natural history of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis. We performed a microsimulation generating the life histories of 10 million women. Changes in these life histories occur as consequences of prevention strategies. We estimated costs of screening activities using an activity-based costing analysis. We assessed lifetime risk due to cervical cancer, lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-expectancy (QALE) for 18 scenarios. Strategies varied by screening interval (three and five years), primary and triage test (Pap test and HPV DNA test), and HPV 16 and 18 vaccination.

The current screening policy (Pap test every three years) is more costly and less effective than HPV DNA test and Pap test triage every five years. For unvaccinated women an HPV DNA test every five years with a Pap test triage was cost-effective (ICER €5753/QALE). Vaccination followed by the same screening strategy was cost-effective (ICER €23,951/QALE) for women who are eligible to be vaccinated.

Our findings strongly support changing the Pap screening policy to the use of HPV DNA as a primary test with Pap test triage for both vaccinated and unvaccinated women.