Construction and validation of a prognostic index for patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma

To identify prognostic factors in patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

The relationship between patient characteristics and outcome was examined by multivariate regression analyses of data from 409 consecutive patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma who had been treated with a gemcitabine-containing regimen, and we stratified the patients into 3 risk groups according to the number of prognostic factors they had for a poor outcome. A validation data set obtained from 145 patients who had been treated with agents other than gemcitabine was analyzed. The prognostic index was applied the each of the patients.

The multivariate regression analyses revealed that the presence of pain, peritoneal dissemination, liver metastasis, and an elevated serum C-reactive protein value significantly contributed to a shorter survival time. The patients were stratified into 3 groups according to their number of risk factors, and their outcomes of the 3 groups were significantly different. When the prognostic index was applied to the validation data set, the respective outcomes of the 3 groups were found to be significantly differed from each other.

Pain, peritoneal dissemination, liver metastasis, and an elevated serum C-reactive protein value are important prognostic factors for patients with metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma.