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Changes in present and future circulation types frequency in northwest Iberian Peninsula.
María N Lorenzo1, Alexandre M Ramos, Juan J Taboada
1EPhysLab, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
Plos One
|February 2, 2011
Summary
Future climate projections for the Iberian Peninsula indicate shifts in weather patterns. Expect fewer cyclonic and more anticyclonic circulation types, especially in spring and summer.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Meteorology
- Synoptic Variability
Background:
- Understanding regional climate change impacts is crucial for adaptation.
- The Iberian Peninsula's climate is sensitive to shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project changes in synoptic variability for the northwest Iberian Peninsula throughout the 21st century.
- To analyze alterations in the frequency of dominant atmospheric circulation types.
Main Methods:
- Utilized three climate models from the IPCC 4th assessment report for projection scenarios.
- Employed the Lamb circulation types method to classify atmospheric patterns.
- Validated model performance using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the late 20th century.
Main Results:
- Projected decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, Westerly (W), and Southwesterly (SW) circulation types during spring and summer.
- Observed a concurrent increase in anticyclonic circulation types in autumn.
- Seasonal mean sea level pressure fields and circulation type frequencies were compared.
Conclusions:
- The 21st century is projected to experience significant changes in Iberian Peninsula's synoptic variability.
- A shift towards more anticyclonic conditions is anticipated, particularly in warmer seasons.
- These findings highlight potential alterations in regional weather patterns and their implications.
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