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Assessing future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin through dynamical downscaling
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón1,2,3, Ricardo M Trigo2,4, Raquel Nieto1,5
1Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, 32004 Ourense, Spain.
Iscience
|October 23, 2025
Summary
Future tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Atlantic may decrease in density and frequency. While major hurricane numbers might rise, intensity changes remain uncertain, aligning with El Niño-like trends.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Meteorology
- Oceanography
Background:
- Projecting future tropical cyclone (TC) activity is complex due to climate model limitations.
- Understanding regional TC changes is crucial for climate adaptation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate projected changes in North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity under different emission scenarios.
- To assess future TC density, frequency, and intensity using high-resolution downscaling.
Main Methods:
- Downscaling of bias-corrected CMIP6 climate model data for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
- Utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 20 km horizontal resolution.
- Statistical analysis of projected TC activity in the North Atlantic basin (NATL) for 2071-2100.
Main Results:
- A statistically significant reduction in TC density in the tropical and central NATL.
- A projected decrease in mean annual TC frequency.
- A potential increase in the annual number of major hurricanes (Category 3+) under the high emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), with non-significant intensity change signals.
Conclusions:
- Future North Atlantic TC activity is projected to decrease in frequency and density.
- While major hurricane frequency may increase, intensity projections are uncertain.
- Findings on TC frequency align with projected El Niño-like conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
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