The multiregional matrix growth operator and the stable interregional age structure

Area of Science:

• Demography and Population Studies
• Computational Social Science
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Existing population forecasting predominantly uses cohort-survival methods, which are trend-based and typically aspatial.
• These methods struggle to integrate the spatial and temporal dimensions of population dynamics effectively.
• The need for interregional models that account for place-to-place migration is increasingly recognized.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose an integrated interregional population-forecasting model.
• To address the limitations of current trend-based and aspatial models.
• To incorporate migration dynamics into population projections.

Main Methods:

• Extension of the demographer's matrix model to incorporate place-to-place migration.
• Development of a dynamic, spatial, and temporal population model.
• Utilizes computational simplicity for programming on digital computers.

Main Results:

• The proposed matrix model provides an integrated framework for interregional population forecasting.
• It allows for the simultaneous consideration of spatial and temporal population processes.
• The model is adaptable for computational implementation.

Conclusions:

• The developed matrix model offers a more realistic approach to population forecasting in open, interregional systems.
• It effectively integrates migration, a key driver of population change, into forecasting.
• This method enhances the accuracy and applicability of population projections.