The global financial crisis and Australian general practice

Area of Science:

• Health Economics
• Public Health Policy
• Primary Care Services

Background:

• The global financial crisis (GFC) presents complex economic challenges with potential impacts on healthcare markets.
• Understanding the specific effects on primary care, such as general practitioner (GP) services, is crucial for policy and service planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the potential economic impacts of the GFC on the Australian general practitioner (GP) market.
• To analyze how changes in unemployment and asset values might influence GP service demand and supply.

Main Methods:

• Econometric modeling was used to estimate the impact of unemployment rate fluctuations on GP service demand.
• The study also assessed the influence of lost asset values on GP retirement intentions and work patterns.
• Supply and demand effects were combined to project the GFC's impact on the GP market under various economic scenarios.

Main Results:

• Increased GP availability (e.g., 2% from deferred retirement) and reduced working hour reductions could lead to a 2.53% rise in GP service volumes and a $0.23 decrease in average consultation fees at 5.2% unemployment.
• Under higher unemployment (8.5%), GP fees could increase by $0.91 and GP income by nearly 3%.
• Overall, average GP gross earnings showed minimal change compared to pre-GFC trends.

Conclusions:

• The GFC is anticipated to stimulate activity within the general practitioner (GP) market.
• Potential reductions in GP fee levels relative to pre-GFC trends are likely.
• The net impact on average GP incomes is projected to be small, particularly at current unemployment rates.