Modeling of identity-by-descent processes along a chromosome between haplotypes and their genotyped ancestors

Identity-by-descent probabilities are important for many applications in genetics. Here we propose a method for modeling the transmission of the haplotypes from the closest genotyped relatives along an entire chromosome. The method relies on a hidden Markov model where hidden states correspond to the set of all possible origins of a haplotype within a given pedigree. Initial state probabilities are estimated from average genetic contribution of each origin to the modeled haplotype while transition probabilities are computed from recombination probabilities and pedigree relationships between the modeled haplotype and the various possible origins. The method was tested on three simulated scenarios based on real data sets from dairy cattle, Arabidopsis thaliana, and maize. The mean identity-by-descent probabilities estimated for the truly inherited parental chromosome ranged from 0.94 to 0.98 according to the design and the marker density. The lowest values were observed in regions close to crossing over or where the method was not able to discriminate between several origins due to their similarity. It is shown that the estimated probabilities were correctly calibrated. For marker imputation (or QTL allele prediction for fine mapping or genomic selection), the method was efficient, with 3.75% allelic imputation error rates on a dairy cattle data set with a low marker density map (1 SNP/Mb). The method should prove useful for situations we are facing now in experimental designs and in plant and animal breeding, where founders are genotyped with relatively high markers densities and last generation(s) genotyped with a lower-density panel.