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Understanding changes over time in workers' compensation claim rates using time series analytical techniques.
1Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. etompa@iwh.on.ca
Occupational and Environmental Medicine
|March 31, 2011
Summary
Workers' compensation claim rates show significant seasonal variation and are influenced by business cycles. Claim rates move inversely to unemployment rates, indicating economic factors impact workplace injuries.
Area of Science:
- Occupational Health and Safety
- Econometrics
- Time Series Analysis
Background:
- Understanding temporal variations in workers' compensation claim rates is crucial for effective safety management.
- Traditional occupational health and safety literature has not extensively utilized advanced time series techniques for this analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze inter-temporal variations in workers' compensation claim rates using novel time series methods.
- To investigate the relationship between unemployment rates and workers' compensation claim rates.
Main Methods:
- Decomposition of workers' compensation claim rates (1991-2007) from a Canadian authority.
- Application of multitaper spectral estimation, harmonic F test, Kalman smoother, and ordinary least squares.
Main Results:
- Seasonal variation is the dominant component in workers' compensation claim rates.
- Business cycle fluctuations in claim rates exhibit an inverse relationship with unemployment rates.
Conclusions:
- Workers' compensation claim rates are primarily driven by a negative long-term growth trend.
- Seasonal trends and business cycle fluctuations, proxied by unemployment rates, also significantly influence claim rates.
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