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Updated: Jun 3, 2026
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Published on: February 29, 2020
The influence of narrative v. statistical information on perceiving vaccination risks
Cornelia Betsch1, Corina Ulshöfer1, Frank Renkewitz1
1Center for Empirical Research in Economics and Behavioral Sciences (CEREB), University of Erfurt, Erfurt, Germany.
Summary
Narratives about vaccine adverse events significantly impact vaccination decisions, often overriding statistical data. Emotional content in narratives increases perceived risk more than factual richness.
Area of Science:
- Health communication
- Risk perception
- Behavioral science
Background:
- Online health information influences patient decisions, including vaccinations.
- Narrative information, alongside statistics, affects treatment choices.
- Understanding how narratives impact risk judgments is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify mechanisms through which narratives influence risk judgments.
- To examine how varying narrative features affect perceptions of vaccine risks.
- To assess the impact of narrative characteristics on vaccination intentions.
Main Methods:
- Online bulletin board simulating exposure to statistical and narrative information on adverse events.
- Experiment 1: Varied number of adverse event narratives (1, 2, or 4 out of 10).
- Experiment 2: Manipulated statistical risk, narrative proportion, richness, and emotionality.
Main Results:
- More adverse event narratives inversely correlated with vaccination intentions, mediated by perceived risk.
- Narrative quantity had a stronger effect than statistical risk information.
- Highly emotional narratives increased perceived risk; narrative richness had no significant effect.
Conclusions:
- The quantity of narratives about adverse events can significantly influence risk perception.
- Narrative information, particularly emotional content, may override statistical risk data in decision-making.
- Future research should consider the persuasive power of narratives in health communication.
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