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Related Concept Videos

Testing a Claim about Population Proportion01:24

Testing a Claim about Population Proportion

A complete procedure for testing a claim about a population proportion is provided here.
There are two methods of testing a claim about a population proportion: (1) Using the sample proportion from the data where a binomial distribution is approximated to the normal distribution and (2) Using the binomial probabilities calculated from the data.
The first method uses normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The requirements are as follows: sample size is large...
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Often, psychologists develop surveys as a means of gathering data. Surveys are lists of questions to be answered by research participants, and can be delivered as paper-and-pencil questionnaires, administered electronically, or conducted verbally. Generally, the survey itself can be completed in a short time, and the ease of administering a survey makes it easy to collect data from a large number of people.
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Probability in Statistics

Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. The term event is defined as a collection of results of a procedure. An event is a simple event when an outcome cannot be divided into simpler parts.
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Sample Proportion and Population Proportion

Collecting samples or responses from an entire population takes significant time and effort, so a researcher collects responses from only a sample of that population. Suppose a study needs to collect information about a specific mobile application. After sample collection, the researcher analyzes the data and discovers that most individuals in the sample use that specific mobile application. The sample proportion measures the number of individuals in a sample who either use or don't use the...
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Probability Distributions01:32

Probability Distributions

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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
13:04

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Published on: September 19, 2012

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys.

Michael D Hurd1

  • 1RAND and NBER October, 2008.

Annual Review of Economics
|September 28, 2011
PubMed
Summary

Subjective probabilities predict outcomes when individuals have private information, like retirement planning. However, stock market probability beliefs vary widely due to information access, impacting investment decisions.

Area of Science:

  • Behavioral economics
  • Decision science
  • Survey methodology

Background:

  • Subjective probabilities are increasingly collected in large household surveys.
  • These probabilities aim to improve understanding of inter-temporal decision-making.
  • Existing research highlights the predictive power of subjective probabilities in specific contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the predictive power of subjective probabilities across different information environments.
  • To investigate the variation in subjective probability assessments for financial market outcomes.
  • To explore the determinants of subjective probability formation, particularly concerning stock market gains.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of large-scale household survey data.

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  • Comparison of subjective probability estimates with actual outcomes.
  • Examination of individual differences in information access and processing.

    • Main Results:

    • Subjective probabilities show strong predictive power when individuals possess private information (e.g., survival, retirement).
    • Subjective probabilities for stock market gains exhibit significant cross-individual variation, despite a lack of private information.
    • These probabilities are often lower than historical averages, potentially explaining low stock-holding frequency.

    Conclusions:

    • Individual access to and processing of information significantly influence subjective probability assessments.
    • Understanding the mechanisms of subjective probability formation is crucial for economic and financial decision-making.
    • Further research is needed to fully elucidate how individuals construct these probabilities.