Feasibility of Predicting MCI/AD Using Neuropsychological Tests and Serum β-Amyloid

We examined the usefulness of brief neuropsychological tests and serum Aβ as a predictive test for detecting MCI/AD in older adults. Serum Aβ levels were measured from 208 subjects who were cognitively normal at enrollment and blood draw. Twenty-eight of the subjects subsequently developed MCI (n = 18) or AD (n = 10) over the follow-up period. Baseline measures of global cognition, memory, language fluency, and serum Aβ(1-42) and the ratio of serum Aβ(1-42)/Aβ(1-40) were significant predictors for future MCI/AD using Cox regression with demographic variables, APOE ε4, vascular risk factors, and specific medication as covariates. An optimal sensitivity of 85.2% and specificity of 86.5% for predicting MCI/AD was achieved using ROC analyses. Brief neuropsychological tests and measurements of Aβ(1-42) obtained via blood warrants further study as a practical and cost effective method for wide-scale screening for identifying older adults who may be at-risk for pathological cognitive decline.