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Risk analysis for measles reintroduction after global certification of eradication

Raymond Sanders1, Alya Dabbagh, David Featherstone

  • 1ray@raysanders.co.uk

The Journal of Infectious Diseases
|June 14, 2011
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Global measles eradication is feasible, with low risks of reintroduction from lab stocks or infections. However, declining immunization could enable bioterrorism, necessitating a global risk management strategy and vaccine stockpile.

Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Measles virus persistence is expected post-eradication in lab stocks, infected individuals, and potential undetected transmission foci.
  • Assessing reintroduction risks is crucial in a post-universal immunization era.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify and evaluate the primary risks associated with measles reintroduction after global eradication certification.

Main Methods:

  • A qualitative risk assessment was performed.
  • Literature searches were conducted using the PubMed database.

Main Results:

  • Stringent eradication criteria minimize undetected transmission risk.
  • Reintroduction risk from lab materials or persistent infections is low to very low, contingent on vaccine use.
  • Decreased immunization levels increase measles' potential as a bioterrorism agent.

Conclusions:

  • Posteradication risks are low and should not impede eradication efforts.
  • Further research on transmission dynamics and atypical infections is needed for certification requirements.
  • An international risk management strategy, including a vaccine stockpile, is vital for minimizing posteradication risks.

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