Graphical models, potential outcomes and causal inference: comment on Linquist and Sobel

Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...

Pharmacodynamic models are essential tools in understanding the relationship between drug concentrations and their effects on biological systems. By characterizing the dynamics of drug action, these models guide dose selection, optimize therapeutic efficacy, and inform the development of new drugs. Two major classes of pharmacodynamic models include direct effect and indirect response models.Direct Effect ModelsDirect effect models describe the immediate relationship between drug concentration...

While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?

The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?

Statistical tests can calculate whether there is a relationship, or correlation, between independent and dependent variables. An indirect relationship of the variables signifies a correlation, while a direct relationship shows causation. If it is determined that no connection exists between the variables, then the correlation is a coincidence.
Correlation versus Causation
If the dependent variable increases or decreases when the independent variable increases, there is a positive or negative...