Tracking of blood pressure from childhood to adolescence in a Greek cohort

Studies have reported tracking of blood pressure (BP) from childhood to adulthood but with inconsistent results mainly due to methodological and ethnic differences. We aimed to examine BP tracking during a 7-year period in a Greek cohort.

This is a longitudinal school-based study conducted during 1990-96 in Athens, Greece. Children underwent BP and anthropometric measurements on two to three visits annually (averaged to annual values) for 7 years.

A total of 166 children with complete yearly follow-up data for the examined period were included (mean baseline age 9 ± 1.7 years, range: 5-12 years, 89 boys). At baseline, the prevalence of pre- and hypertension was 22.9 and 24.1% respectively and at the end of the follow-up 24.1% (P = NS vs. baseline) and 13.3% (P = 0.02 vs. baseline) respectively. Systolic/diastolic BP tracking correlation coefficients between 1990 and 1996 were 0.38 (P < 0.001)/0.20 (P = 0.06) for boys and 0.30 (P = 0.007)/0.22 (P = 0.06) for girls. Among children with baseline BP ≥90th centile (systolic and/or diastolic), 44% remained in the same BP range after 7 years. In stepwise multiple regression analysis, baseline systolic BP, male gender, baseline body mass index (BMI) and change in BMI from baseline to the end of the follow-up (ΔBMI) were significant predictors of systolic BP levels at the end of the follow-up. Baseline diastolic BP, baseline BMI and ΔBMI were significant predictors of diastolic BP at the end of the follow-up.

These data suggest that the risk of developing high BP during adolescence can be predicted by BP and BMI at childhood.