Modeling neolithic dispersal in central Europe: demographic implications

Area of Science:

• Archaeogenetics
• Population Genetics
• Paleodemography

Background:

• Recent studies suggest Neolithic Central Europe's expansion resulted from Near Eastern farmer colonization.
• This colonization model necessitates high Neolithic population growth and fertility rates.

Observation:

• Three demographic models were developed using stochastic population projections.
• These models tested the hypothesis of Neolithic farmer colonization without admixture with indigenous foragers.

Findings:

• Colonization is an unlikely explanation for Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe.
• Required fertility and growth rates exceed expected levels for early Neolithic populations.
• Successful colonization would necessitate unlikely conditions: >37% female survival to childbearing age, >150 years of expansion, and consistent farmer population growth.

Implications:

• The findings support models of Neolithic dispersal involving significant admixture with local foragers.
• Estimated admixture contribution from foragers ranges from 55% to 72%.
• This challenges purely colonization-based explanations for the Neolithic spread in Central Europe.