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Resource distribution in multiple attacks with imperfect detection of the attack outcome
Gregory Levitin1, Kjell Hausken
1Collaborative Autonomic Computing Laboratory, School of Computer Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China. levitin@iec.co.il
Summary
This study models imperfect attack observations, showing inaccurate assessments significantly impact target destruction probability and attacker resource use in multi-attack scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Operations Research
- Game Theory
- Defense Analysis
Background:
- Previous research on consecutive attacks assumes perfect observation of outcomes.
- Real-world scenarios involve imperfect information regarding attack success.
- Understanding these imperfections is crucial for strategic resource allocation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a probabilistic model for consecutive attacks with imperfect outcome observation.
- To analyze the influence of observation errors on attack strategy and resource expenditure.
- To determine optimal attacker strategies regarding the number of attacks, stopping rules, and resource distribution.
Main Methods:
- Development of a probabilistic model incorporating contest success functions.
- Analysis of a multi-attack game with imperfect information.
- Mathematical modeling to derive optimal resource allocation and attack decisions.
Main Results:
- Imperfect observation probabilities significantly alter target destruction probability and attacker expenditure.
- Resource ratios, contest intensity, and number of attacks are key determinants of outcomes.
- Optimal resource distribution across attacks is influenced by observation errors and strategic considerations.
Conclusions:
- Imperfect information fundamentally changes the dynamics of consecutive attack strategies.
- Attackers must account for observation errors when allocating resources and deciding attack continuation.
- The model provides insights into optimizing defense and offense under uncertainty.
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