Differential group delay prediction in optical fiber links

We simulate the time evolution of differential group delay (DGD) in a fiber link in the hinge model with time series forecasting procedures, in particular, autoregressive (AR) models with Kalman filter, pattern imitation, and a Taylor expansion. In these studies, the furthest prediction horizon was attained with the AR accompanied by the Kalman filter procedure. We further discuss the influence of measurement noise on the prediction horizon. We also apply these methods to the measured DGD on 40 Gb/s fiber links and discuss the results.