Stress, uncertainty and decision confidence.

Area of Science:

• Cognitive psychology
• Neuroscience
• Decision-making under uncertainty

Background:

• Stress is known to influence cognitive functions.
• Decision confidence is a critical aspect of judgment and choice.
• The impact of stress on decision confidence, particularly concerning uncertainty levels, requires further elucidation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how experimentally induced stress affects decision confidence in a probabilistic prediction task.
• To examine the differential effects of stress on decision confidence across varying levels of outcome uncertainty and probability knowledge.

Main Methods:

• Participants performed a probabilistic prediction task under conditions of induced stress (via excessive cognitive demands) and a control condition.
• Stress levels were objectively measured using skin conductance.
• Decision confidence ratings were collected alongside performance accuracy and uncertainty levels.

Main Results:

• Stress increased decision confidence for high and low uncertainty decisions when outcome probabilities were incompletely known (20% residual uncertainty).
• Under complete probability knowledge (0% residual uncertainty), stress decreased decision confidence for intermediate uncertainty decisions.
• Evidence suggests stress impairs ambiguity (implicit-risk) assessment.

Conclusions:

• Stress differentially modulates decision confidence based on uncertainty levels and knowledge of outcome probabilities.
• Stressful conditions can lead to overconfidence or underconfidence depending on the specific decision context.
• Impaired risk assessment under stress highlights potential detriments in real-world decision-making.