Expert systems for the prediction of ovulation: comparison of an expert system shell (Expertech Xi Plus) with a...

The use of an expert system shell (EXPERTECH Xi Plus) in the construction of an expert system for the diagnosis of infertility has been evaluated. A module was devised for predicting ovulation from the medical history alone. Two versions of this system were constructed, one using the expert system shell, and the other using QuickBASIC. The two systems have been compared with respect to: (1) ease of construction; (2) ease of knowledge base update; (3) help and explanation facilities; (4) diagnostic accuracy; (5) acceptability to patients and clinicians; (6) user-friendliness and ease of use; (7) use of memory space; and (8) run time. The responses of patients and clinicians were evaluated by questionnaires. The predictions made by the computer systems were compared to the conclusions reached by clinicians and to the "gold standard" of day 21 progesterone. The conclusions of this pilot study are: (1) the construction of this expert system was NOT facilitated by the use of this expert system shell; (2) update of the knowledge base was not facilitated either; (3) the expert system shell offered built-in help and explanation facilities, but as the system increased in complexity these became less useful; (4) after initial adjustment of decision thresholds the diagnostic accuracy of the system equalled that of the clinician; (5) the patient response to computer history-taking was very favorable but much less favorable to computer diagnosis; (6) the clinicians took a positive attitude to computer diagnosis; (7) the systems were easy to use; (8) the expert systems shell required much more memory space and had a much slower response time than the system written in BASIC.