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Lifetime risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a longitudinal population study
Andrea S Gershon1, Laura Warner, Paul Cascagnette
1Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, ON, Canada. andrea.gershon@ices.on.ca
Lancet (London, England)
|September 13, 2011
Summary
Approximately 27.6% of individuals will be diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in their lifetime. This study quantifies COPD risk across diverse demographics in North America.
Area of Science:
- Pulmonary Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death, high prevalence, and significant healthcare costs.
- Comprehensive lifetime risk estimates for COPD in the general population were previously unavailable.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the lifetime risk of developing physician-diagnosed COPD.
- To analyze COPD risk in a large, multicultural North American population.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective longitudinal cohort study utilizing health administrative data from Ontario, Canada (approx. 13 million individuals).
- Monitoring of individuals free of COPD in 1996 for up to 14 years for COPD diagnosis, age 80, or death.
- Utilized a validated case definition for COPD based on health services claims and modified survival analysis for cumulative incidence, adjusted for competing risks.
Main Results:
- The overall lifetime risk of physician-diagnosed COPD by age 80 was 27.6%.
- Lifetime risk varied by demographics: higher in men (29.7%) vs. women (25.6%), lower socioeconomic status (32.1%) vs. higher (23.0%), and rural (32.4%) vs. urban (26.7%) settings.
- A total of 579,466 individuals received a COPD diagnosis during the study period.
Conclusions:
- Nearly one in four individuals face a diagnosis of COPD during their lifetime.
- Highlights the need for evidence-based clinical strategies, public health initiatives, and further research to prevent COPD and improve patient quality of life.
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