Association between modifiable lifestyle factors and residual lifetime risk of diabetes

While clinical trials have reported beneficial effects of diet, exercise, and weight loss on incident diabetes in subjects with obesity or impaired glucose tolerance, little is known about the incremental benefit of not smoking and moderate drinking on diabetes risk. We sought to examine the association between modifiable lifestyle factors and residual lifetime risk of diabetes.

Prospective cohorts involving 20,915 men (1982-2008) and 36,594 women (1992-2008). Modifiable lifestyle factors and adiposity were ascertained at baseline in each cohort and incident diabetes was ascertained during follow up. The mean age at baseline was 53.5 y in men and 54.6 y in women. During an average follow up of 22.6 y in men and 13.0 y in women, 2096 men and 2390 women developed diabetes. At age 45 y, the residual lifetime risk of diabetes (95% CI) for men with 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 + healthy lifestyle factors was 30.5 (27.3-33.7); 21.5 (19.9-23.0); 15.1 (13.9-16.3); 10.3 (9.1-11.5); and 7.3 (5.7-8.9) percent; respectively. Corresponding values for women were 31.4 (28.3-34.5); 24.1 (21.8-26.5); 14.2 (12.7-15.7); 11.6 (9.7-13.5); and 6.4 (4.2-8.6) percent, respectively.

These data show an inverse and graded relation between desirable lifestyle factors and residual lifetime risk of diabetes in men and women. Not smoking and moderate drinking may have additional benefits when added to exercise, weight control, and diet.