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Published on: December 16, 2017
A mathematical model for shortening waiting time in pancreas-kidney transplantation
Eleazar Chaib1, Marcelo Augusto F Ribeiro, Vinicius Rocha Santos
1Eleazar Chaib, Marcelo Augusto F Ribeiro Jr, Vinicius Rocha Santos, Roberto Ferreira Meirelles Jr, Luiz Augusto Carneiro D'Albuquerque, Eduardo Massad, Liver and Pancreas Transplantation Surgery Unit, LIM 37 and LIM 01, Department of Gastroenterology, University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine, Av Dr Eneas de Carvalho Aguiar 255, Level 9, 05403-010, Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Aim:
To simulate a hypothetical increase of 50% in the number of pancreas-kidney (PK) transplantations using less-than-ideal donors by a mathematical model.
Methods:
We projected the size of the waiting list by taking into account the incidence of new patients per year, the number of PK transplantations carried out in the year and the number of patients who died on the waiting list or were removed from the list for other reasons. These variables were treated using a model developed elsewhere.
Results:
We found that the waiting list demand will meet the number of PK transplantation by the year 2022.
Conclusion:
In future years, it is perfectly possible to minimize the waiting list time for pancreas transplantation through expansion of the donor pool using less-than-ideal donors.
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