Novel combination markers for predicting progression of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer

To identify prognostic markers in nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), the combined effect of RUNX3 and MGC17624 for predicting NMIBC progression was assessed. RUNX3 promoter methylation was examined using methylation specific-polymerase chain reaction (MS-PCR). MGC17624 mRNA expression was evaluated by real-time PCR. Patients were divided into three groups according to the status of the two genes and the prognostic effects of these markers were evaluated. The median follow-up period was 57.8 months (range, 9.1-189.7). The mRNA expression level of MGC17624 was significantly lower in patients with positive RUNX3 methylation than in those with negative methylation (p = 0.047). Kaplan-Meier estimates showed significant differences in time-to-progression between the genetic combination predictors (log-rank test; p < 0.001). Patients with a poor predictive combination were at a significantly higher risk for progression [Hazard ratio (HR), 22.579] than patients with a good predictive combination in multivariate Cox regression analysis. In the subgroup analysis, a poor predictive combination accurately estimated progression in patients with intravesical therapy (HR, 20.081) and in those who experienced recurrence (HR, 54.233). Assessment of the status of RUNX3 and MGC17624 in combination was identified as a reliable method for predicting NMIBC progression.