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An experiment with census-type age enumeration in Nigeria.

J C Caldwell, A A Igun

Population Studies

|November 11, 2011

Summary

Nigerian census data accuracy is questionable due to age misstatements. This study examined age reporting in the Western State, revealing systematic biases and issues with data origin, impacting population estimates.

Area of Science:

Demography
Population Studies
Social Statistics

Background:

Nigeria conducted censuses in 1952/3 and 1963, but age data raised significant concerns.
Previous enumerations exhibited doubts regarding accuracy and completeness.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate age misstatement patterns in Nigerian censuses.
To evaluate the accuracy of age reporting methods in the Western State.
To assess the reliability of past census data for population estimation.

Main Methods:

A census of 10,000 individuals in Nigeria's Western State was conducted in 1969.
Employed orthodox methods, historical records, and single-year cohort identification.
Collected explanatory data to analyze age statement origins.

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Main Results:

Confirmed exaggeration of females aged 20-44 and older males; understatement of persons aged 0-9 and females aged 50-59.
Observed age understatements for unmarried females (15-24) and overstatements for married females, especially with higher parity.
Identified third parties as primary sources of biased age data, often untrainable.

Conclusions:

Age misstatement tendencies persist and can be influenced by enumeration methods and time allocation.
Elaborate enumeration methods require further examination for national census feasibility.
The study provided evidence questioning the 1963 Nigerian Census validity, leaving population figures uncertain.