The estimation of adult mortality in Africa from data on orphanhood

Summary Until recently, very little information has been available about the levels and patterns of adult mortality in tropical Africa, but during the past decade several countries have included questions in censuses and surveys as to whether a person's father and mother are still alive. From the data so obtained, estimates of adult mortality have been prepared. This paper compares the results of three such exercises with alternative estimates of adult mortality derived from other sources. In the case of Chad, the orphanhood data obtained in the demographic sample survey of 1964 yielded estimates of mortality which agreed reasonably closely with those obtained from questions on deaths of household members occurring during the twelve months preceding the survey. The latter data however were themselves subject to substantial errors and had to be corrected using techniques based on stable population theory. For Kenya, the orphanhood questions were included in the 1969 census and the results were compared with the mortality estimates derived from inter-censal survival from 1962 to 1969. Once again, the data obtained from the latter were subject to error but in general appeared to be consistent with the orphanhood estimates. The third comparison was made from Malawi, where alternative mortality figures were available from the Malawi Population Change survey which was a 'dual record' type of operation, conducted in 1971/2. The agreement in this case was remarkably close, once the number of deaths had been corrected for omissions by both systems with allowance for positive correlation. It is concluded that as a simple and inexpensive technique of estimating adult mortality, the orphanhood approach has much to recommend it.