Trends in demographic change

The paper reviews changes in fertility and mortality in Asia, Africa and Latin America which have taken place during the last 40 years. In the Far East and in Latin America dramatic falls in fertility have occurred, but in the Indian sub-continent reductions in birth rates have been much more sluggish, while in sub-Saharan Africa the evidence suggests that fertility was rising rather than falling, though a few countries, notably Kenya, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland and Senegal, now appear to have turned the corner. Despite famines and other disasters in Africa and elsewhere, there is as yet no evidence that mortality has risen in any countries of the 'Third World'; indeed both child and adult mortality have continued to decline--a trend which is attributed to the expansion of primary health care, improved education, and better understanding of how to keep children alive.