Desired family size and the efficacy of current family planning programmes

Abstract This paper takes a look at the belief that the number of couples currently desiring to limit family size is sufficiently large (and the intensity of their desire sufficiently strong) that the provision of supplies, services and education - the standard family planning package - will be adequate to bring the birth rate down to acceptable levels within a reasonable time period. Evidence comes from other countries, from attitude surveys and behavioural studies in India, from a priori considerations about what is reasonable to expect, and from certain demographic considerations. The most reasonable conclusion to draw from this evidence is that the belief is not correct. If the birth rate is to be brought down to target levels, additional methods - perhaps monetary incentives - seem to be necessary.