Recent fertility in Mexico: measurement and interpretation
Population Studies
|November 15, 2011
Summary
Mexican fertility remains high despite economic development. Economic factors like income and the sex ratio may explain this persistent high birth rate, challenging typical demographic transition patterns.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Economics
Background:
- Mexican fertility rates have remained high (crude birth rate of 42-46) despite significant economic development and modernization.
- Socioeconomic changes include increased urbanization, education, income, female labor force participation, and decreased infant mortality.
- Data indicate no age or region-specific fertility declines, suggesting a consistent national trend.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the reasons behind Mexico's persistent high fertility rates.
- To analyze the influence of demographic transition variables on Mexican fertility behavior.
- To identify key factors contributing to the paradox of high fertility amidst development.
Main Methods:
- Utilized cross-section regressions to analyze state-level data in Mexico.
- Employed weighted log-linear models.
- Incorporated variables such as income, education, urbanization, occupational status, industrial composition, labor force participation, and sex ratio.
Main Results:
- Demographic transition variables explained a significant portion of the variation in state-adjusted child-woman ratios.
- Income and sex ratio were identified as potential explanatory factors for Mexican fertility trends in 1960 and 1970.
- These two variables showed a positive influence on fertility, contrary to expected trends in demographic transitions.
Conclusions:
- Mexico's fertility behavior presents a unique case, diverging from standard demographic transition models.
- Economic factors, specifically income levels and the sex ratio, appear to play a crucial role in sustaining high fertility.
- Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interplay of socioeconomic factors and fertility in Mexico.
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