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Published on: August 8, 2017
Summary
The Maori population in New Zealand is projected to grow rapidly, increasing by 60-70% between 1961 and 1976. Without reduced fertility, Maori family heads will face a significant dependency burden.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- Analysis of recent mortality and fertility trends within New Zealand's minority Maori population.
- Examination of historical demographic shifts over the past two decades.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project future population growth and age distribution for the Maori population up to 1976.
- To assess the potential impact of varying mortality and fertility scenarios on the Maori population.
Main Methods:
- Demographic analysis of mortality and fertility data.
- Development of two population projection models for 1976.
- Scenario planning based on differing assumptions of life expectancy and fertility rates.
Main Results:
- Projected rapid population growth for the Maori population (60-70% increase from 1961-1976) under both projection scenarios.
- Anticipated changes in the age distribution, particularly at the youngest age groups.
- Identification of a potentially heavy dependency burden for Maori family heads if fertility remains high.
Conclusions:
- Regardless of the projection scenario, significant Maori population growth is expected.
- A reduction in fertility is crucial to mitigate the dependency burden on Maori family heads.
- Future demographic trends highlight the need for policy considerations regarding population growth and family support.
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